by REVPNT · A Maurice Willis IP
MetricNest
B2B SaaS / Marketing Technology
Recurring Revenue
What if acquisition is only one part of the growth problem?
MetricNest is a fictional B2B SaaS company used to demonstrate recurring-revenue economics inside SIGNAL — plan mix, churn, activation, conversion, and expansion modeled as one system.
MetricNest has paying subscribers and meaningful recurring revenue, but growth has started to slow.
The founder becomes increasingly focused on generating more trials and acquiring more customers.
SIGNAL models the recurring system end to end: starting MRR by plan, churned MRR by plan, new MRR from trials, and expansion revenue.
ARPU means average revenue per user — the average monthly revenue produced by each active subscriber.
Owner Assumption
“We need more users.”
Current model
- Plan base
- 140 Starter at $39 · 78 Growth at $89 · 32 Pro at $179
- Starting MRR
- $18,130
- Plan churn
- 5.8% · 3.9% · 2.4%
- Churned MRR
- $724.89
- Trial funnel
- 430 trials × 38% activation × 22% paid conversion
- New customers
- 35.95
- New-customer mix
- 58% Starter · 31% Growth · 11% Pro
- Weighted new-customer ARPU
- $69.90
- New MRR
- $2,512.77
- Expansion MRR
- $507.64 (2.8% of starting MRR)
- Ending MRR
- $20,425.52
- Processing cost
- 2.9%
- Infrastructure and support cost
- 11.5%
- Modeled gross contribution
- $17,484.24
- Fixed operating costs
- $12,250
- Modeled operating contribution
- $5,234.24
Modeled scenario
- Plan base and trials
- Unchanged · 430 trials
- Plan churn
- 4.5% · 2.9% · 1.8%
- Activation
- 44%
- Paid conversion
- 26%
- New-customer mix
- 50% Starter · 35% Growth · 15% Pro
- Weighted new-customer ARPU
- $77.50
- Expansion MRR
- 4.2% of starting MRR
- Modeled ending MRR
- $22,153.72
- Modeled gross contribution
- $19,074.35
- Modeled operating contribution
- $6,824.35
The scenario does not forecast that MetricNest will reach these churn, activation, or plan-mix levels. It shows what the recurring economics would look like if those assumptions became true.
Calculation Logic
Every figure below is produced by interacting drivers — volume, qualification, mix, conversion, frequency, channel economics, cost behavior, collections, churn, and expansion. A modeled scenario shows what those drivers would produce if the stated assumptions became true.
Current model
- 01Starting MRR
(140 × $39) + (78 × $89) + (32 × $179)
= $18,130
- 02Churned MRR
Plan MRR × plan churn of 5.8% / 3.9% / 2.4%
= $724.89
- 03New MRR
430 trials × 38% activation × 22% paid conversion = 35.95 new customers × $69.90 weighted ARPU (58% / 31% / 11% plan mix)
= $2,512.77
- 04Expansion MRR
2.8% of $18,130 starting MRR
= $507.64
- 05Ending MRR
$18,130 − $724.89 + $2,512.77 + $507.64
= $20,425.52
- 06Modeled gross contribution
Ending MRR less 2.9% processing and 11.5% infrastructure and support cost
= $17,484.24
- 07Modeled operating contribution
$17,484.24 less $12,250 fixed operating costs
= $5,234.24
Modeled scenario
- 01Churned MRR
Same plan base with churn modeled at 4.5% / 2.9% / 1.8%
= Lower churned MRR
- 02New MRR
430 trials × 44% activation × 26% paid conversion, at $77.50 weighted ARPU (50% / 35% / 15% plan mix)
= Higher new MRR
- 03Expansion MRR
4.2% of $18,130 starting MRR
= $761.46
- 04Modeled ending MRR
Starting MRR less churn, plus new MRR and expansion
= $22,153.72
- 05Modeled gross contribution
Ending MRR less 2.9% processing and 11.5% infrastructure and support cost
= $19,074.35
- 06Modeled operating contribution
$19,074.35 less $12,250 fixed operating costs
= $6,824.35
What SIGNAL Surfaces
Recurring revenue is shaped by more than customer acquisition.
Churn, activation, paid conversion, plan mix, and expansion all act on the same starting base, so improving several modestly can outweigh buying more trials.
More acquisition can create growth, but poor retention can quietly weaken the economics behind it.
Better Question
Which combination of acquisition, retention, pricing, and expansion deserves investment first?
Decision Areas To Investigate
- Activation
- Paid conversion
- Churn
- Retention
- Plan mix
- Pricing
- Expansion revenue
- Customer acquisition
The number is the signal.
SIGNAL models how business economics respond when assumptions change. A modeled scenario is not a forecast, guarantee, or automatic diagnosis. The purpose is to help you see where deeper investigation may be worthwhile.